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DTN Midday Grain Comments 02/03 10:39
Grain Futures Seeing Red Midday Friday
Corn trade is flat to 1 cent lower, beans are 6 to 8 cents lower and wheat
trade is 6 to 10 cents lower.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
Corn trade is flat to 1 cent lower, beans are 6 to 8 cents lower and wheat
trade is 6 to 10 cents lower. The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow up 75
points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 0.80 higher. Interest rate products are
weaker. Energies are mixed with crude up $0.20 and natural gas off $0.08.
Livestock trade is mixed with hogs leading. Precious metals weaker with gold
down $50.00.
CORN:
Corn trade is flat to 1 cent lower at midday Friday with trade fading into
nearby support levels and slightly weaker spread action as early day session
strength fading once again. Ethanol margins have support from natural gas while
blender margins tighten again with the recent fade in unleaded values, but
spring blends will boost margins soon. Crop development will continue to be
watched with drier weather short term in Argentina and early double crop
planting in Brazil to expand rapidly in coming days. The daily export wire was
silent for corn all week. Basis has stabilized in the west with above average
action holding up overall. On the March chart, support is at the $6.73 20-day
moving average, which we are testing at midday with the upper Bollinger Band at
$6.93 the next round up, which we have faded from last week with a fresh high
for the move being scored at $6.88 3/4, which we tested Thursday.
SOYBEANS:
Soybeans are 6 to 8 cents lower with expanding Brazil harvest and short-term
dryness in Argentina while nearby U.S. demand appears to have slowed down a bit
this week. Meal is $2.50 to $3.50 higher and oil is 1.55 cents to 1.65 cents
lower. The daily export wire saw 132,000 metric tons soybeans sold to unknown
for new crop. Trade will be looking for the Brazil export pace to pick up soon
as harvest expands further, while Argentina will be watched for further
deterioration. Basis remains mostly sideways near term. March chart support is
at the $15.13 20-day, which we remain solidly above, with the upper Bollinger
Band at $15.49.
WHEAT:
Wheat trade is 6 to 10 cents lower at midday with KC the downside leader as
trade once again tested resistance early in the session before fading, with
spread trade remaining solid. The Southern Plains should show improvement
temperature wise with the best rain shots for the eastern plains, and little
change to the Europe and Black Sea situation short term. Matif wheat values are
flat but holding up better than U.S. values so far. On the chart, KC March has
support at the 20-day moving average at $8.48, which we are solidly above, with
the recent high at $8.95 as resistance with the upper Bollinger Band at $8.92.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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